NFL preview: Detroit Lions
ESPN the Magazine stole my planned joke about guaranteeing more victories for the Lions in 2009 than they got last season, but I do anticipate real progress, though not the ability to compete in a suddenly loaded division, for the winless wonders.
Projected finish: 3-13 (4th in NFC North)
New Lions coach Jim Schwartz faces a tall task, to say the least, after his new team made history with its 0-16 finish in 2008. The good news is that talent, in the form of top overall draft pick Matthew Stafford has been added, and some areas, especially the offensive line, really shouldn't be that bad. The bad news is that every player on the roster could stay healthy and play well above their heads, and the Lions would likely still finish in fourth place. They might be scary in a year or three, but not just yet.
Stafford will likely start the season behind veteran QB Daunte Culpepper on the depth chart. It is the right move, as Culpepper presents the best chance to win for a team sorely in need of one. Whoever takes the snaps will have one of the league's premier targets to throw to in standout WR Calvin Johnson. The rest of the receivers are a motley crew that includes journeyman Dennis Northcutt, Keary Colbert and John Standeford. TEs Will Heller and Dan Gronkowski have a combined 257 yards in career receiving yardage (Gronkowski is a rookie), so the non-Johnson options truly are limited.
At least RB Kevin Smith showed plenty of promise as a rookie during the otherwise lost season in Detroit. He's got a capable backup in Maurice Morris, so the Lions should be able to run the football. They have assembled a line that should allow them to do so. Likely starters up front include Jeff Backus, Daniel Loper, Dominic Raiola, Stephen Peterman and Gosder Cherlius.
It is the line on the other side of the ball that Lions fans should be most concerned about. Cliff Avril made five sacks as a rookie DE, but he'll have to more than double that total for the Lions to get consistent pressure from the front four. It probably won't come from the other end spot, where Jason Hunter, a former sparingly-played reserve in Green Bay, is the probable starter. DT Grady Jackson has probably passed the point of going from a steady veteran to being just plain old, and fellow first-teamer Chuck Darby is little more than two years younger than Jackson.
New OLB Julian Peterson's numbers fell off the past few years, but he was once an elite pass rusher at the position. If he's good, he, fellow OLB Ernie Simms and Larry Foote should make linebacker a major strength for the Lions. Anthony Henry and Phillip Buchanon aren't the worst pair of starting cornerbacks in the league. Safeties Kalvin Pearson and Marquand Manuel round out a seconary that should be adequate.
