NFL preview: Green Bay Packers
I'd be very surprised if the Packers don't have the best offense in the NFC North this season ... though I think they'll also give Detroit serious competition for the title of worst defense in the division.
Projected finish: 9-7 (3rd in NFC North)
Not only will the Green Bay offense shine in the traditionally defense-dominated NFC North, it will be among the very best in the entire NFL. Unfortunately for cheeseheads everywhere, the Packers will encouter more than a few bumps in the road as they transition to a 3-4 base defense for the first time. Having the right coach for the 3-4, as the Packers think they do in coordinator Dom Capers, is one thing. Having the personnel for it, which I don't believe they do at all, is another.
Jay Cutler and Brett Favre have gotten the most attention lately, but Aaron Rogers might just be the best quarterback in the division. He seems poised to follow up his excelent 2008 season, which was his first as a starter, with a bigger 2009. Greg Jennings, who seemed like he'd be nothing more than a decent No. 3 receiver early in his career, has developed instead into a legitimate No. 1. Donald Driver's getting up there in years, but is still far better than most No. 2s. Jory Nelson and James Jones offer above-average depth at receiver, and Donald Lee is a decent tight end.
Ryan Grant is off to a flying start to his NFL career, though his yards per carry dipped significantly in a 1,200-yard season last fall. If he stumbles, Brandon Jackson and DeShawn Wynn should be able to pick up most of the slack in the running game. Chad Clifton, Daryn Colledge, Jason Spitz, Josh Sitton and Allen Barbere are the likely starters on an offensive line that should be better than average, though not as strong as what the Packers trot out at nearly every skill-position spot.
B.J. Raji, whom the Packers drafted No. 9 overall in the 2009 NFL Draft, is the key to the 3-4 at nose tackle. He hasn't yet officially won the starting job, however, from veteran Ryan Pickett. I'm not sure either Raji or Pickett, at least initially, nor ends Johnny Jolly and Cullen Jenkins will command the kind of attention from opposing lines that will free up the linebackers to make plays.
On the outside at linebacker, former DE Aaron Kampman will start along with Nick Barnett, who is coming off an injury-riddled and disappointing season. A.J. Hawk, whose tackle totals have dropped in each of the last two years, and unproven Jeremy Thompson start inside. Charles Woodson and Al Harris are a fantastic cornerback duo, and Will Blackmon is a proven fill-in guy. Atari Bigby, who I like for his first name if for no other reason, and stud Nick Collins are the starting safeties.
