NFL preview: Carolina Panthers
I don't see the Panthers being nearly as terrible as they were in the playoffs ... nor do I see them being anywhere near as good as they were last regular season.
Projected finish: 8-8 (3rd in NFC South)
The Panthers are remarkably similar to the Tennessee Titans in the AFC, except their quarterback, Jake Delhomme, is far more prone to stupid and frequent turnovers. They run the ball and they play outstanding defense. The problems are that, like the Titans, I don't see the Panthers playing defense as well this year as they did in 2008. And they're in a league that is turning more and more into a contest to see who can best pass the ball ... and they can't keep up with many teams in shootouts.
Even when Delhomme isn't turning the ball over six times as he did in Carolina's playoff loss last year, he's an average, at best, starting QB, despite what the Panthers have committed to him, financially and otherwise. That means Steve Smith, who remains one of the best receivers in the game, won't be as effective as he could be if he were playing in, say, New Orleans or even Houston. And beyond Smith, who will be double teamed as freqently as anyone in the league, Delhomme's targets include Muhsin Muhammad, Dwayne Jarrett and Kenneth Moore as well as TEs Gary Barnidge and Jeff King. Yikes.
DeAngelo Williams probably won't duplicate his out-of-this-world 2008 running the ball. The Panthers could still be a top-five runing team even if he falls well short, as young Jonathan Stewart should pick up much of the slack. Veteran Brad Hoover is an outstanding fullback. Jordan Gross may have gotten paid a little more than he deserved in his contract extension, but he is probably the best blocker on a superb line that includes Travelle Wharton, Ryan Kalil, Keydrick Vincent and Jeff Otah.
DE Julius Peppers registered 14.5 sacks last season and has already shown more staying power than the vast majority of defensive lineman who specialize in rushing the passer. It is good for the Panthers that they got him back, even for a ridiculous amount of money, because he's the only reason that their defensive line shouldn't be a major weakness. DE Tyler Brayton and DTs Nick Hayden and Damione Lewis are the likely starters at the other three spots.
Not only are the Panthers unproven at linebacker, but they're very banged up there heading into the season. If they're upright, Thomas Davis, Jon Beason and Na'il Diggs should start. Chris Gamble is a good corner who's being paid by the Panthers like he's Champ Bailey. He'll almost need to be Bailey for a secondary that includes Richard Marshall, Charles Godfrey and Chris Harris, to be better than average on a defense that looks pretty average everywhere, at least to me.
