NFL Conference Championship picks
George Halas and the other fathers of professional football probably couldn't have dreamed of what we're preparing for Sunday — two late January football games which will be played indoors and with wide-open offenses like those Indianapolis and New Orleans run.
I don't think they'd complain too much, as it should be a very entertaining and competitive day of football. I thought the same about last weekend's games heading in, though, and we were stuck watching three blowouts. Let's hope that no matter what happens tomorrow, it's intriguing from start to finish.
New York Jets at Indianapolis (2 p.m.): I'm getting sick of picking against the Jets, who've made me look foolish twice already this postseason. Their defense has me convinced that it's for real, and they've run the ball successfully on far better run defenses than the Colts'. Now that they've eliminated the team I picked to win the Super Bowl at the start of the playoffs, San Diego, I'm fully on the bandwagon. They're certainly the underdog, as they barely made the playoffs and are left with three teams that have been at the top of the standings all year.
So why am I picking the Colts to win pretty handily? There are a few reasons. One is that even if their pass rush harrasses Peyton Manning, he won't make the types of mistakes Carson Palmer and Phillip Rivers did the last two weeks. I'll concede that Darelle Revis will probably take Manning's best receiver, Reggie Wayne, out of the game. All that will mean is that TE Dallas Clark will probably go nuts (San Diego's Antonio Gates showed last week that tight ends can have success against the Jets defense). Plus, Manning has proven he can find guys like Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon with regularity.
As for the Indianapolis defense, if it can beat the sterling Jets offensive line sufficiently to hit rookie QB Mark Sanchez a couple of times early, he could start to make the mistakes he made during the regular season. Last week against Baltimore and Joe Flacco, the Colts showed they can stop a top-notch running game if a struggling young quarterback can't make plays. Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones can't win this game by themselves. Colts 24, Jets 10 .
Minnesota at New Orleans (5:40 p.m.): New Orleans played an incredible game against Arizona last week. The Saints not only played an almost flawless offensive game against a bad defense, they stopped a top-notch offense consistently and with only a few exceptions. Yet the Saints weren't even the most impressive NFC team for the weekend, as the Vikings were equally dominant against a Dallas team that had the entire country believing it was one of the few real Super Bowl contenders out there. And as much as it pains me to do it, I'm picking the Vikings to take down a team which has become the popular pick to win for a second straight week.
Other than a huge Tim Hightower touchdown run on the first play from scrimmage, the Cardinals had trouble running the ball on the Saints last round. I don't think the Saints run defense will have the same kind of success against Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor and the Vikings offensive line. If Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams opts to load the box to stop Peterson, the Brett Favre to Sidney Rice connection will make him regret it. Williams doesn't have anything close to a Revis with which to cover Rice one-on-one.
If Saints QB Drew Brees has time to throw, he should be able to match whatever ridiculous amount of points Favre and the Vikings put up. Jared Allen and the Minnesota defense will have to beat a solid offensive line to do it, but I'm guessing they'll get to Brees often enough, barely, to slow the Saints a bit. New Orleans could keep pace anyway if Reggie Bush has another game-breaking game like he did against the Cardinals. He's disappeared in big moments before since turning professional. I expect him, Bress and the Saints to come up just a bit short. It could come down to a field goal, and in that case, Ryan Longwell is one of the very few NFL kickers I'd still describe as reliable. New Orleans' Garrett Hartley is not. Vikings 41, Saints 38.
