AFC thoughts entering the NFL season

It's a bit too late to do team-by-team NFL previews in this space, as I've done in the past. I simply couldn't find the time this year, but I've got plenty of thoughts. Here are some on the AFC:

•   Division winners this fall will include Miami, Baltimore, Indianapolis and San Diego. I'm following the general consensus with my divisional picks with the exception of the Dolphins, who I like a lot assuming QB Chad Henne continues to progress positively. With a young QB who's a whole lot less proven than anyone seems to think in Mark Sanchez, the Jets seem poised to disappoint for the 382nd time in their history. I think they'll win nine games, maybe 10, and compete but will be left out of the playoffs in a heated three-horse AFC East race.

•  Wild-card winners will include New England and Tennessee ... though I could see that final spot going to those Jets, Pittsburgh, Cincinatti or Houston. Part of me wanted to declare this the Texans' year to break through, but it always seems like it's the Texans' year to break through right now. Until Gary Kubiak is no longer their coach (really, how many second chances does this guy get?), I'm going to expect them to keep coming up short until they actually prove me wrong.

•  The Chargers will start to fall off. It's not because they lost LaDainian Tomlinson, because at this point in his career that's actually a good thing for them. It's because Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeil, who are both huge parts of their offense, are mired in ugly contract disputes and have not practiced and because I have questions about the defense. Now the Chargers will win the AFC West — I don't see how Denver overcomes the injuries sustained by Elvis Dumervil and Ryan Clady, and Kansas City and Oakland are still Kansas City and Oakland — but they might do so with just nine or so wins.

•  I could see 11 wins for the Steelers ... and I could also see them slipping to 6-10. Same for the Bengals, who could be really good or could be an absolute circus come November with all of their crazy personalities. In fact, the only two teams in the entire conference I'd refer to as sure things are the Colts, because they're good every year, and the Ravens, who are my pick to make the Super Bowl. Oh, and the Bills, who are as sure a bet to finish last in their division as anyone in football.