Sox pay Danks; Cubs trade Marshall
Two teams with similar, if not identical, stated organizational plans just made decisions that seem to accomplish differing goals.
The admittedly rebuilding White Sox, who couldn't find money for Mark Buehrle days ago, somewhat curiously chose to lock up 26-year-old lefty John Danks with what's reported to be 5 year, $65 million extension. Meanwhile, the Cubs did what they haven't done for years, if ever — traded a popular, productive player (Sean Marshall) when his value is probably at its peak. The question is whether or not the haul they got from the Reds (left-handed starter Travis Wood and a pair of minor leaguers) is sufficient for a player of Marshall's caliber.
I'll start with Danks and with the positives of keeping him around. To begin, he's a darn good pitcher. He's just entering his prime. The $13 million-a-year price tag is quite reasonable, particularly since it ends when Danks will be only in his early 30s. Theoretically, the Sox could complete a rebuild before the contract ends and have Danks contribute to contending teams in its final year or years ... and then extend him again if he's still productive. With Buehrle gone, Jake Peavy's health a major question mark and Gavin Floyd still an inconsistent enigma, Danks is the fairly clear-cut ace of the Sox for the forseeable future.
The thing is, the same reasons that the Sox wanted to keep Danks around are the same reasons he'd have been so attractive to potential trade partners. There aren't any other players — with the possible exception of Alexei Ramirez — on the roster that could bring back anywhere near the kind of prospect haul Danks could be expected to fetch. I mean, other than those two, the roster consists almost exclusively of guys the Sox would be thrilled just to dump like Peavy and Alex Rios and reclamation projects like Gordon Beckham that might bring a no-name, low-level prospect in return.
How, exactly, does GM Kenny Williams plan to hold onto one of his few great trade chips and rebuild his barren farm system at the same time? He already turned one guy that had value (Sergio Santos) into a single relatively underwhelming minor-league pitcher. The Sox farm system badly needs both quality and quantity, and several weeks into a key offseason for the organziation's future, Williams hasn't been able to add much of either.
On the other side of town, Team Theo (Esptein) very logically dealt one of the best relievers in baseball in Marshall, who's 29 years old and due to become a free agent. Marshall is more than your typical LOOGY — even though he's left-handed, he is more "elite setup man" than "lefty specialist" because he's adept at getting right-handed hitters out as well as lefties. But he's still just a reliever. Even the best relievers just aren't as valuable as decent starters, and relievers flame out all the time. While I like Marshall and think he has staying power, the time was right to move him.
With that said, the haul isn't exactly inspiring. Wood's OK — he's a youngish lefty that can hopefully eat up some innings. Guys like Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein say, according to a Fangraphs article, that Wood's ceiling is a back-end-of-the-rotation guy. But he'll make the league minimum for the next two years and be under team control for the next five. And the Cubs got a pair of throw-in prospects to boot. It makes all kinds of sense for the Cubs, even though the Reds — who I think have a very real shot to win the NL Central in 2012 — may end up winning the trade.
While the Sox kept an excellent pitcher Wednesday and the Cubs traded an excellent pitcher of their own for a mediocre one, I think it was a much better day for the north siders. For once, the Cubs are the team with the plan. Keeping Danks makes you wonder if the Sox truly have one.
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