Cubs trade Zambrano to Marlins
Comments (...)I'll remember the good more than the bad with Carlos Zambrano. That said, I'm glad he's gone.
Zambrano's wild 11-year tenure with the Cubs ended Wednesday when he was traded to the Marlins — along with most of the $18 million that Zambrano will be paid in 2012 — for fellow right-handed starter Chris Volstad. It could be said that the teams are exchanging disappointments. A former first-round pick, Volstad has done less than expected on the field. Zambrano's struggles, of course, have not been confined to the diamond.
Chemistry is a concept overrated by fans and media in baseball. Everything being hunky-dory in the clubhouse has way less to do with how a team performs than does that team's level of talent. But Zambrano's behavior, and its effect on how his teammates perceive him, mandated this move. His teammates hated him, to the extent they just about said as much publicly.
The endless cycle of blow-ups, contrition and promises of reform, which was always followed by more childish and disruptive behavior, had to end. Zambrano's teammates were weary of it, and so were most of the same once-mezmerized fans that had responded with a stading ovation every time Zambrano came up to bat. The immaturity and distractions might still be tolerated if Zambrano were still an elite pitcher. When a 4.82 ERA season in 2011 was coupled with him quitting on his team following a meltdown in Atlanta, the camel's back had been broken.
Years from now, it will be easier to remember that 2011 was an unfortunate end to one of the better pitching careers in Cubs history. Discounting a brief and bad 2001 debut and his final season, Zambrano piled up 30.7 WAR in nine years, as measured by Fangraphs. Injuries and suspensions kept him below 190 innings in each of the past four seasons, making it easy to forget what a workhorse Zambrano was in the mid-2000s. From 2003 through 2007, Zambrano threw over 209 innings and had a sub-4 ERA every year. He was never in the the best pitcher in baseball discussion, but few guys offered that kind of value over a five-year stretch during the same time period.
Of course, there are other positive reasons to remember Zambrano. Personally, I got to be at Miller Park in Milwaukee on Sept. 14, 2008 for his no-hitter. I'll probably never see anything that cool in person at a baseball game again. There were the big strikeouts, which Zambrano would follow with a point to the sky and by talking to himself back to the dugouts. There were the feel-good home runs, which happened almost frequently enough that Lou Piniella could justify letting a guy with a .251 career OBP pinch hit. Almost. Zambrano was an integral part of the playoff teams the Cubs fielded in 2003, 2007 and 2008, and he was less to blame that just about anybody for them coming up short in 2004.
Without taking any of this away from Zambrano, heading into 2012, he is a declining distraction. Zambrano has been inconsistent enough the past few years that I'm not sure Volstad isn't the better pitcher. He's 25 years old; as bad as his 2011 season was, there is hope that better days are ahead for him. Going from Dolphins Stadium to Wrigley Field won't help, but Volstad is the kind of ground-ball pitcher that could succeed with the Cubs, even when the wind is blowing out.
Contrast that with Zambrano, whose stuff clearly isn't anywhere near what it was four years ago. His velocity is down, and the ball doesn't dance away from bats the way it once did. With his heavy sinker, Zambrano could still succeed if he'd "learn how to pitch" the way many veterans who lose velocity do. While Zambrano's 3.46 walks per nine innings rate in 2011 was the second-lowest of his career, he's not exactly what you'd call a control pitcher. There are plenty of days where he has almost no idea where the ball is going, let alone how to paint the black of the plate with it. I don't see Zambrano ever approaching the kind of success he once had in the future.
If I had to choose between Zambrano and Volstad from a purely on-the-field standpoint in 2012 alone, I would take Zambrano ... but I'd think about it a bit. When you factor in their ages (30 to 25), their mileage and their contracts (Zambrano's expires after 2012, barring him having a career-best season to secure a vesting option for 2013; Volstad is arbitration eligible and under team control through 2014), Volstad is the pitcher I'd rather have. And when all the other garbage that comes with Zambrano is weighed in, this trade clearly becomes an excellent one for the Cubs.
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