Defending AL Central champion Tigers win Fielder derby
Why find a half-decent replacement for Victor Martinez when you can find a better one, and leave the rest of the AL Central in your dust in the process?
The extremely long and tiresome free agency of Prince Fielder, which had him reportedly headed everywhere from Washington to Texas to the Cubs, ended today with him suprisingly bound for Detroit. Less than a week after we learned Tigers DH extraordinare Victor Martinez would likely miss the 2012 season with a torn ACL, the Tigers opted to give Fielder the money and the years he wanted. Though Fielder is subpar defensively and on the bases, Detroit felt his bat is worth $214 million over nine years.
I don't think it is, and I think five years from now, this contract could be an Alfonso Soriano-like payroll crippler for the Tigers, and thus be a good thing for the White Sox and the rest of the teams in the AL Central. For now? It takes the Tigers from a team that was probably the team to beat in its division even after losing Martinez to, I think, the heaviest divisional favorite in the game.
While the Tigers are flawed and aren't incredibly deep, they have a big three that few teams can rival. Detriot will pay a ton of money for Fielder, Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera in 2012. Those three players combined to produce almost 20 wins above replacement last season, per Fangraphs; it's not unreasonable to think they could come close to that again this year.
Just for comparison's sake, three of the most highly-paid White Sox players — Adam Dunn, Jake Peavy and Alex Rios — combined on -0.7 of Fangraphs WAR in 2011 (Peavy's 2.9 WAR was badly offset by the -0.7 of Rios and the ridiculous -2.9 of Dunn). Those three, or at least Dunn and Rios, almost have to be better in 2012 — but how can the Sox have any hope of competing with the Tigers if there is that big a disparity between their "stars?" That's a more than 20-win difference in production from 3 roster spots!
Thing is, nobody in the AL Central has anything close to the three-headed monster that will lead the Tigers. Maybe Minnesota comes close if it can somehow keep Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Francisco Liriano healthy and productive. I highly doubt that happens. I also highly doubt that anyone really pushes the Tigers in their division this season.
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