Former AL Central counterparts laud Guillen as in-game manager
Comments (...)(MCT) — The questions were all but entirely personality-related.
When the Marlins introduced him as manager, nobody asked President of Baseball Operations Larry Beinfest if Ozzie Guillen stuck with starters too long or sacrificed too much.
It was all about Guillen’s makeup — his forthrightness, his charisma, his verve — and how it would mesh with an organization that couldn’t make managerial marriages last with other more docile men.
Known for his endless supply of sound bites, Guillen’s work as a tactician arguably has been obscured.
Two of his former American League Central counterparts expressed great respect for him as a strategist.
“Sometimes people lose sight of the fact of what a smart baseball guy he is because of some of the other stuff that goes with it,” said Tigers manager Jim Leyland, who spent the last six seasons going head-to-head with Guillen.
“He’s kind of a flamboyant guy. . . . That’s his personality and I don’t think there’s anything wrong with that. I think sometimes because of that stuff people forget what a good game manager he is.”
How many wins Guillen or any manager is worth is difficult to quantify. One way, albeit imperfect, is to compare the team’s actual record to its Pythagorean record.
Bill James developed the formula for Pythagorean winning percentage, which estimates a team’s record based on how many runs it scored and allowed.
Under Guillen, the White Sox won 18 more games than they should have based on their cumulative Pythagorean records. Only in 2004 and 2009 did Guillen’s teams fail to meet their Pythagorean win total, missing by one both years.
According to Baseball Prospectus, the cumulative difference between the White Sox’s actual winning percentage and Pythagorean figure under Guillen was 10.6 percent.
Of the four others who like Guillen have managed continuously since 2004, only Mike Scioscia’s Angels outperformed their Pythagorean winning percentage by a greater margin (16.5 percent).
Bruce Bochy’s Padres and Giants were a combined 5.5 percent better than expected. Ron Gardenhire’s Twins and Tony La Russa’s Cardinals came in at 3.5 percent and 3.3 percent better, respectively.
“It’s a battle of wits every day with him,” Indians manager Manny Acta said.
“If he has the players, he’s tough to beat. I saw that for two years. ... He’s not afraid to squeeze or to bunt. He’s adjusted very well. He has some throwback to him with the bunting style and he also has some new wave type of thing.
“He’s just smart, period. I was very impressed with the way he handled his bullpen. Who am I to say that? The guy had already won a World Series, but that’s what you try to do when you manage. You try to manage both clubs. There were very few times in the two years that I could say, why is he doing that? It does help when you have the pieces in place, but you still have to utilize them.”
Acta correctly pointed out Guillen isn’t shy about bunting.
His 162-game average for sacrifice attempts is 60, more than Scioscia (57), Gardenhire (55), Ron Washington (59) and Joe Maddon (44). Yet characterizing Guillen’s offenses as small ball is a misnomer.
From 2004-’09, the White Sox averaged just over 44 percent of their total runs per season off homers.
Four times during that stretch they led the AL in that category, which Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan facetiously dubbed the Guillen number because his teams often were lauded for their small ball tactics.
From a pitching standpoint, Guillen during his first three seasons led the circuit in slow hooks and long outings by starters.
Baseball Info Solutions quantifies slow hooks and quick hooks based on scores calculated using total number of pitches and 10 times the number of runs allowed. The top 25 percent of scores in the league are considered slow hooks. More than 110 pitches is a long outing.
“Ozzie knows exactly what’s going on,” Leyland said. “He’s a real smart, instinctive baseball guy, and he knows how to run a game.”
Added Acta: “(The Marlins) are getting a good one.”
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