Giants defeat Patriots 21-17 in Super Bowl

I was exactly right with my Super Bowl prediction.

Though I neglected to put it on the blog, I did tell some friends. You can ask them — exactly what I said would happen did. I predicted a 33-24 Patriots win ... and every time I told someone about it, i prefaced it by saying I had no feel whatsoever for what was going to happen, and that I was sure the opposite would happen no matter what I picked.

Two really simple things made me think the Patriots would win. Tom Brady is a better quarterback than Eli Manning (though he wasn't Sunday), and the Patriots were 13-3 this regular season to the Giants' 9-7. I should have put more consideration into all the factors going the Giants' way — things like the complete 360 their defense has pulled, Rob Gronkowski's health and, most importantly, the way the Giants had already proven me wrong THREE TIMES this postseason when I'd picked again them. How does the saying go? Fool me once, shame on you; fool me four times, I'm a complete idiot?

I can't be the only one who was still not believing in the Giants. I know a lot of people excuse their near-collapse in the second half of the season on the strength of their schedule. It's true that their four-game losing streak came against the 49ers, Eagles, Saints and Packers, but they also lost an important Week 15 game to the Redskins. They couldn't cover anyone most of the year; I was really supposed to believe their defense was legit because they beat the choking Falcons and Alex Smith (along with, yes, the Packers) in prior playoff games?

In retrospect, though, it feels silly to have picked against a defensive line that has been that dominant. It seems stupid to have thought that Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs couldn't have a one-game revival against a defense as leaky as New England's.

Most of all, I regret picking against Manning. I still don't put him on the same level as the NFL's top-shelf quarterbacks (Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and a healthy Peyton Manning). But I think he proved this year that he is easily the fifth-best QB in the game, and right on the heels of the elites. Picking the Patriots partially on the basis of quarterback play is unwise when Manning has made the margin between him and Brady so thin.