MLB preview: Detroit Tigers

Even with Prince Fielder, Detroit may have only the sixth-best roster in the American League in my book (maybe the seventh if the Blue Jays really put it together). In the Central, that is plenty to be the favorite.

2011 record: 95-67 (1st in AL Central). Projected 2012 finish: 91-71 (1st in AL Central).

Possible starters: C Alex Avila, 1B Prince Fielder, 2B Ryan Raburn, SS Jhonny Peralta, 3B Miguel Cabrera, LF Andy Dirks, CF Austin Jackson, RF Brennan Boesch, DH Delmon Young, SP Justin Verlander, SP Doug Fister, SP Max Scherzer, SP Rick Porcello, SP Jacob Turner, CL Jose Valverde, RP Joaquin Benoit, RP Octavio Dotel.

Half-full outlook: Barring a big-time bounceback from Joe Mauer (or, perhaps, Justin Morneau), the Tigers have the 3 best players in the division in Fielder, Cabrera and Verlander. Fielder is better than the out-for-the-year Victor Martinez; therefore, the Tigers should be even better offensively. A full season from Fister will only help what has become a fairly deep rotation behind Verlander. Who cares what playing Cabrera at third base (and Fielder at first) is going to do to the Tigers defensively? They'll rake it, and pitch it, so well we'll hardly notice if they can't pick it.

Half-empty outlook: Fielder, Cabrera and Verlander are awesome players, but is it really realistic to think they'll total 19.8 wins above replacement between them, as they did in 2011? And they're not the only Tigers that are likely to regress. I'll be shocked if Avila duplicates his 5.5 WAR season — which was largely possible because of his obscene .366 batting average on batted balls in play. Valverde has long had more success than his peripherals suggest he should; don't be surprised if that changes. Fister can't possibly replicate the 1.79 ERA and 0.84 WHIP he recorded after coming to Detroit last year. All of this suggests that, even with their splashy new first baseman, the Tigers could be quite a bit worse than their 95-win form of a year ago.

Halfway between the two outlook: I didn't like the Tigers too much going into last season, picking them to finish third ... and they won 95 games and finished 15 games ahead of second-place Cleveland. I guess I learned my lesson, because I'm picking them to roll to a division title this season, but that's more a product of the teams they share their divison with than it is of me suddenly loving Detroit. The Big 3 is just too good to envision anyone else catching the Tigers. Much as I see them regretting the Fielder contract in 5 years, it makes them the clear-cut favorite in the near future.