Bumpy ride ahead for state budget

SPRINGFIELD (MCT) — Speaker Michael Madigan on Tuesday outlined grim budget news to House Democrats who left a closed-door meeting predicting deep budget cuts, particularly in health care for the poor.

"Fasten your seat belts. It's going to be a very bumpy ride," Rep. Elaine Nekritz, D-Northbrook, said as she emerged from the gathering.

The problem in state government continues to be one of income versus expenses, despite last year's major income-tax increase.

Madigan's memos laid out scenarios for how much additional money could come in during the next budget year that starts July 1. If revenue grows a modest 2 percent, the state would collect an additional $568 million. If it grows 4 percent, which one lawmaker suggested is unlikely, the state would gain about $1.13 billion.

But the amount of new money isn't likely to be enough to cover the increased costs of public worker pensions, which are expected to increase by $957 million. And that doesn't take into account the desire to increase spending in the rest of the budget, especially on politically popular areas like education.

The situation leaves rising costs of the Medicaid program for the poor and pensions as pressure points for lawmakers. They are shaping up as targets for areas of potentially large cuts, including who is eligible and what care is given.

In Chicago, Gov. Pat Quinn predicted Medicaid costs might need to be reduced by $2 billion. The state spends about $15 billion a year on the program. Some lawmakers wondered if the cuts could be deeper. Rep. Sara Feigenholtz, the Chicago Democrat who chairs a House committee overseeing Medicaid and social services, said the potential cuts are "breathtaking."

"We're going to have to take a very close look at eligibility and services and optional (medical care) and see how we can come up with a blend of reforms that are going to get 60 votes," Feigenholtz said, referring to the number of votes needed to pass a bill." It's not going to be an easy task."

Quinn said some savings can come from cutting the reimbursement rate for doctors, hospitals and pharmacies that provide services. It'll be a tough sell with the state's powerful health care lobby geared up to oppose such cuts.