Farewell to winter? Early peek at March forecast

CHICAGO (MCT) — It almost hit 50 degrees today. Next week, it'll be in the 40s. Then February is nearly over.

Winter too?

The National Weather Service isn't ready to make that declaration, but the first long-range forecasts for March indicate it could be warmer and wetter than normal.

"We could still have some cold and snowy days," cautions weather service meteorologist Samuel Shea. "But there could also be days when people are in shorts."

Normal for March is highs around 40 at the beginning of the month and 53 at the end. Lows generally range from 32 to 43.

As for snow, records going back to the late 1800s indicate an average of four days in March when there's snow measuring more than a tenth of an inch. Maybe one day when there's more than 2 inches.

But there are exceptions that sober up the sunniest of forecasts.

Two of the biggest snowstorms in Chicago hit in March: 16.2 inches on March 7 and 8 in 1931, and 14.3 inches on March 25 and 26 in 1970. And then there was that 13.6 inches of snow on March 25, 1930, and 10.9 inches of snow on March 7, 1931.

In 1962, March began with a record low of minus 5 degrees. The record low for the middle of the month is minus one in 1900. And the coldest it's been in the Chicago area at the end of March was 12 degrees in 1969.

Shea says warm and wetter, to a meteorologist, is just a few degrees that most people might not feel. Still, it looks like this winter's mild trend will continue into March.

WGN-TV meteorologist Tom Skilling notes that Chicago has seen more than 40 days this winter when the high has reached 40 or above. "It's rare for a winter season to record that many 40-degree or warmer readings by now," Skilling say on the Chicago Weather Center blog. "The 141-year average of 40s here by Feb. 15 is 21."

Skilling credits atmospheric conditions that have locked up arctic air to the north of us, "in marked contrast to the pattern which dominated the past four winters."