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Gun concerns evoking sound and fury, but will anything change?

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Politics, of course, plays a role. Obama, facing no other election, has a freedom he never had before. But every member of the House of Representatives and many senators will face voters as early as next year. And those considering presidential runs in 2016 can’t help but wonder how gun control helps or hurts their causes.

Former Congressman Tom Davis, a moderate Republican from Virginia who helps lead the Republican Main Street Partnership, which searches for “pragmatic, common-sense solutions,” according to its website, said his party had taken a beating in recent elections, which had prompted it to correctly reconsider what it stood for, but that didn’t necessarily need to include gun control.

“I think the brand is certainly hurting, but the ultimate question is, does it get better by breaking with the base and have it turn on you?” he asked.

Even Democrats have shied away from gun control since the 1990s — particularly after losing so many seats in the 1994 elections — when they realized it was working against them in marginal states. That’s why the shift among some now is so remarkable.

Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, who worked in the White House under Obama and President Bill Clinton, recalled that Clinton succeeded in passing some gun control measures early in his first term: waiting periods, background checks and an assault weapons ban. But later, even after the 1999 massacre at Columbine High School in Colorado, which left 12 students and a teacher dead, the president wasn’t able to accomplish more.

“Everyone knows this will be a tough slog,” Emanuel said. “While Newtown has focused us … it’s been a tipping point, but it’s not a guarantee.”

A Pew Research Center survey released this week found that for the first time since Obama became president, more than 50 percent of the public — 51 percent, to be exact — thought it was important to control gun ownership. That’s only 4 percentage points higher than it was last summer after a gunman in a movie theater in Aurora, Colo., murdered a dozen people.

“It’s modest, but significant,” said Carroll Doherty, Pew’s associate director.

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