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Medicaid may be safe from cuts

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That has meant Medicaid, a program established in 1965 to help Americans on welfare, is increasingly essential to millions of working families who cannot afford health insurance and to elderly and disabled Americans in need of long-term care. Medicaid is the single largest payer for nursing homes in the country.

“This is now a middle-class entitlement that touches far more Americans than many people realize,” said Colleen M. Grogan, a Medicaid authority at the University of Chicago. Half of all Americans in 2011 either received Medicaid or had a friend or family member who received it, according to a national survey by the nonprofit Kaiser Family Foundation.

Romney and other conservatives criticized this as a debilitating dependency during the 2012 presidential campaign. But many state leaders — Republican and Democratic — have come to rely on Medicaid, despite its flaws, to protect their most vulnerable residents.

Medicaid also draws important support from influential hospital and physician groups, which have rallied behind the program even as many criticize it for paying too little. Without Medicaid, many medical providers would have to care for even more patients unable to pay their bills.

Just last month, a coalition of medical societies, including several from conservative states, helped defeat an attempt by congressional Republicans to cut federal aid intended to increase Medicaid fees paid to primary care physicians.

Similar lobbying in state capitals has also convinced several Republican governors to drop opposition to expanding Medicaid under the health care law. Most recently, Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer announced last month that she would take the assistance, after an intense lobbying effort by hospitals and businesses, which argued that without the additional aid health care providers would be swamped by uninsured patients.

Medicaid’s political clout will only increase in the coming years as close to 20 million more Americans come to depend on the program under the Affordable Care Act, Grogan predicted. In some states, as much as a quarter of the population could soon be on Medicaid.

Federal spending on the program, which topped $262 billion last year, is expected to surpass $581 billion by 2021, according to estimates by independent actuaries at the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

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